Elex analysis

Here's what I've been thinking about lately - stories I'd like to see or write if I could. Of course this is predicated by the view that Obama will win tomorrow or hell will freeze over.

1. Look at the difference in nastiness between the Obama and McCain/Palin campaigns. True, Obama did imply that McCain was too old ("erratic") to be president and all but called Palin a ditz (that ad this weekend that featured her winking). But in lots of ways, the nature of the Obama campaign is the dog that didn't bark.

Take, for example, Al Qaeda's apparent/alleged endorsement of McCain. The Obama people didn't even mention it - but does anyone think the GOP would have ignored that for 5 mins had AQ's website promoted Obama?

Everyone thought the lesson of the Bush v. Gore and Bush v. Kerry campaigns was that you had to play as dirty as the GOP and Rove. That is, you had to grab every tiny opportunity to trash people.

But Obama managed, perhaps because of his generally sunny personality and smile and also because he focused mainly on big messages ("We can't afford 4 more years" and "voted with President Bush 90% of the time), to tiptoe through the tulips mostly unscathed without gutting his opponents personally. Kinda like this JibJab video when he flies around on a unicorn spouting "change!".

2. McCain has a weird Senate-ness about him - serial obsessions and language that prove he was stuck on the Senate floor focused on too-narrow issues that don't add up to anything significant. Like earmarks, and Columbia and Georgia (which he seems to mention constantly thanks to his lobbyist foreign-policy advisor), and the Boeing tanker deal he scotched, and "My friends!" I mean, sure, he could still win, but that would be in spite of himself, not because of his approach to campaigning. He's better off in the Senate, and he's lucky he didn't resign, like Dole did.

3. McCain does deserve credit for not playing the Rev. Wright card. This is, of course, what conservative Republicans will say did McCain in: they'll say he wasn't tough enough, he held back, he should have played even dirtier. But McCain and Palin don't deserve any credit for talking about socialism and Communism. That's just stupid.

4. Having said that, the McCain campaign did drop all sorts of anti-black and anti-gay hints at the end of the campaign. Like references to how raising taxes of hard-working people to "spread the wealth" to allegedly non-working people, which to me was an obvious allusion/smear of black welfare recipients. And various mentions of Barney Frank to crowds of Middle America - hmm, gee, why did they possibly mention Frank?

5. Palin is toast. She will run in 2012 and she will fail miserably and slink back to Alaska. Dan Quayle tried to run for President and it just didn't work. Once conservatives don't take you seriously, forget it. Also, it seems likely that there are more scandals buried in Alaska just waiting to turn up - who knows, maybe she won't survive her re-election campaign in 2010?

6. When it's all over, Hillary and McCain will go out to a bar and drink shots of tequila and whine about losing. Can you imagine the conversation: "I can't believe we both lost to Obama!" That would be a good SNL skit in the next few months.

7. I'd like to read a story about how black voters were mobilized in the South, presumably by churches or the NAACP or the Obama campaign. If Obama wins anything in the South, it will be because of black turnout - which takes serious organization, yes, but also serious commitment on the part of black leaders to get every possible voter registered and to the polls. Maybe that story has been written, but I haven't read it.