Elex analysis

Here's what I've been thinking about lately - stories I'd like to see or write if I could. Of course this is predicated by the view that Obama will win tomorrow or hell will freeze over.

1. Look at the difference in nastiness between the Obama and McCain/Palin campaigns. True, Obama did imply that McCain was too old ("erratic") to be president and all but called Palin a ditz (that ad this weekend that featured her winking). But in lots of ways, the nature of the Obama campaign is the dog that didn't bark.

Take, for example, Al Qaeda's apparent/alleged endorsement of McCain. The Obama people didn't even mention it - but does anyone think the GOP would have ignored that for 5 mins had AQ's website promoted Obama?

Everyone thought the lesson of the Bush v. Gore and Bush v. Kerry campaigns was that you had to play as dirty as the GOP and Rove. That is, you had to grab every tiny opportunity to trash people.

But Obama managed, perhaps because of his generally sunny personality and smile and also because he focused mainly on big messages ("We can't afford 4 more years" and "voted with President Bush 90% of the time), to tiptoe through the tulips mostly unscathed without gutting his opponents personally. Kinda like this JibJab video when he flies around on a unicorn spouting "change!".

2. McCain has a weird Senate-ness about him - serial obsessions and language that prove he was stuck on the Senate floor focused on too-narrow issues that don't add up to anything significant. Like earmarks, and Columbia and Georgia (which he seems to mention constantly thanks to his lobbyist foreign-policy advisor), and the Boeing tanker deal he scotched, and "My friends!" I mean, sure, he could still win, but that would be in spite of himself, not because of his approach to campaigning. He's better off in the Senate, and he's lucky he didn't resign, like Dole did.

3. McCain does deserve credit for not playing the Rev. Wright card. This is, of course, what conservative Republicans will say did McCain in: they'll say he wasn't tough enough, he held back, he should have played even dirtier. But McCain and Palin don't deserve any credit for talking about socialism and Communism. That's just stupid.

4. Having said that, the McCain campaign did drop all sorts of anti-black and anti-gay hints at the end of the campaign. Like references to how raising taxes of hard-working people to "spread the wealth" to allegedly non-working people, which to me was an obvious allusion/smear of black welfare recipients. And various mentions of Barney Frank to crowds of Middle America - hmm, gee, why did they possibly mention Frank?

5. Palin is toast. She will run in 2012 and she will fail miserably and slink back to Alaska. Dan Quayle tried to run for President and it just didn't work. Once conservatives don't take you seriously, forget it. Also, it seems likely that there are more scandals buried in Alaska just waiting to turn up - who knows, maybe she won't survive her re-election campaign in 2010?

6. When it's all over, Hillary and McCain will go out to a bar and drink shots of tequila and whine about losing. Can you imagine the conversation: "I can't believe we both lost to Obama!" That would be a good SNL skit in the next few months.

7. I'd like to read a story about how black voters were mobilized in the South, presumably by churches or the NAACP or the Obama campaign. If Obama wins anything in the South, it will be because of black turnout - which takes serious organization, yes, but also serious commitment on the part of black leaders to get every possible voter registered and to the polls. Maybe that story has been written, but I haven't read it.

This would be funnier if the real possibility of Sarah Palin as President weren't so scary!

Sarah Palin Disney Trailer | Funny Jokes at JibJab

RNC Convention

It's Friday at noon in Tokyo - Thursday evening in the US - and I've been watching McCain's speech live on CNN and saw Sarah Palin 24 hrs ago.

Quick analysis:

McCain's speech was really odd. Stilted. Flat. The most genuine part was about his POW experience in Vietnam. Very moving. But he had a lame laundry list of what he would do to "get the country moving again" Pay people for lesser jobs while they go to community college? Vague promises about health care. Not even a solid foreign policy section, other than taking credit for the surge and a too-long bit about the Republic of Georgia, which most Americans don't care about.

As I see it, he's got two problems: First, he's telling us that the GOP screwed up for 8 years - so give us 4 more years! Second, he's trying to change his basic "experience" brand to a "change" brand, sort of like General Motors promoting its hybrid technology after decades of selling SUVs.

(Now the heavy metal song "Barracuda" is playing... does not exactly fit with the tableau of rich white guys at the convention.)

Sarah Palin: A crackerjack speech, even if it was surprisingly bitchy (in a good way, if you like that sort of bitchiness). Maybe she should have put up her fingers like claws to add a "hisssss" or a "meowww"? She must have guts of steel to make that kind of speech - before a national audience for the first time. Impressive. She looked good, too, in a Jackie sort of way. If she doesn't win VP, she can always do hair commercials.

For better or worse for McCain, Palin solidified her hold on the VP spot. If more serious scandals from her past pop up, he'll have to live with his choice.

Sarah Palin

Here's a pungent column about Sarah Palin and John McCain, by the ever-sharp Michael Kinsley.

McCain's VP

Sarah Palin? Totally bizarro selection. Quickie analysis:

- If he wanted to pick a woman to peel off Hillary voters, he could have gone with Meg Whitman or Carly Fiorina - but maybe they are both pro-choice. Or he could have gone with Olympia Snowe or Kay Bailey Hutchison (though I read somewhere that Hutchison and McCain don't get along). But a 2-year, radically pro-life governor with a 5-month-old infant? I don't see HRC voters moving dramatically in that direction, unless they were already planning to vote for McCain.

- Even stranger, the people who seem most thrilled about the choice of Palin are those right-wing and anti-tax GOP men who, in the past, have tried hardest to destroy McCain: People like Karl Rove, Ralph Reed, Grover Norquist, and Christian conservatives like Richard Land and James Dobson, whom McCain once called "agents of intolerance." I think it says something about McCain's insecurity that, even now, when he's the nominee of the party, he has to suck up to people he clearly detests by choosing someone (alas, a woman) who is so clearly not ready for the job.

- All criticism aside, the selection of Palin does bring one huge benefit to the race: some fresh novelties and absurdies. Who knows when the wheels might come off?

Of course, I could be really, seriously wrong about all this, as I've been before.