Saturday, January 26, 2008

Let's talk politics

Thoughts on the presidential campaign:

1. Big victory for Obama in SC - much deserved, and a big slap to the Clintons. Now he needs to add some policy meat to his rhetoric to give people a better reason to believe that he could fix the US economy and Iraq.

2. The Clintons are increasingly detestable, destructive, depressing and devious - and I actually think McCain could beat Hillary in November after what happened in the past few weeks. The WaPo's Colbert King wrote a good column about their self-absorbed self-pity.

Hillary was blatantly dishonest when, after Obama described the Republicans as the party of "ideas," she associated him with a desire to crush Social Security. Bill Clinton's post-presidency polish is tattered, after he pushed the notion that Obama is the black candidate supported mainly by black people.

Hillary also showed, by relying on Bill as a surrogate attack dog, that she isn't strong enough to win on her own. If Bill is such a loudmouth during the primaries, he would never shut up during a Hillary presidency - and the GOP may successfully, and it appears accurately, make the case that a Clinton II presidency would be as chaotic and destructively dramatic as Clinton I.

3. I think Obama would easily win over McCain. Other than the "do you want a novice in the White House" line - which could be overcome if Obama made a strong VP choice - it would be hard for the GOP to overcome Obama's high-minded themes and "firstness".

4. Having said all of that, Hillary has to be the favorite to win the nomination because her voter ID is so high and many big unions and Dem electeds support her as part of the established order of things.

5. Could Obama turn things around? Either he, or his surrogates, need to toughen their rhetoric about the Clintons; this Politico.com story, "Obama Pulls Punches vs. Clintons,, (which my mother pointed out to me) makes the cogent point that Obama or his surrogates must remind Dems of the Clinton dramas - from Whitewater to Paula Jones to Monica - because the GOP certainly will if Hillary is the nominee this fall.

No comments: